The Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS) is a wide-field survey designed to detect transiting Neptune-sized exoplanets. NGTS consists of twelve fully-robotized 20 cm telescopes and operates from ESO’s Paranal Observatory since early 2016. We develop a yield simulator, apply it to NGTS and illustrate that the survey will be limited by two factors: 1) the achieved red noise level, which determines our sensitivity to small planets, and 2) our ability to identify astrophysical false positives, which mimic planet transits, and outnumber the planet yield. For the assumption of a 1 mmag red noise level, the predicted yield includes dozens of Neptune-sized planets and hundreds of gas giants, along with thousands of false positives. I will show new results from the first months of data, demonstrating that NGTS readily achieves sub-mmag precision, and will discuss innovative new tools to identify false positives in NGTS’ photometric data.